Seedtable #56: My 4 predictions for 2020 (and a new Seedtable)

Jan 10, 2020

. SEEDTABLE

January 10th, 2020 | #57

Heya,

New year, new Seedtable!

In the past month I completely redesigned and re-built a brand new Seedtable from scratch, and researched 6500+ tech startups all over Europe.

The result is startup rankings for 29 countries and 63 cities. Wanna check the best Startups in Berlin? You got it. What about the best ones in Sofia? You got that too.

>> Check the new Seedtable

It wasn’t easy, but it was fun. Go explore the site, comb through the rankings and if you have any feedback, please be brutally honest.

Oh, and there’s something else!

I’m excited to announce that I opened up Seedtable for sponsorships. If you are interested in reaching 10,000s of European founders, investors and startup employees, hit reply.

At first, I was wary of doing it. I didn’t want to compromise the community and I was scared of rejection. But I’m building something of value.

So here I am. And you know what? People gave me money. So if you want to give me money too, hit reply. There’s only 1 spot left in January.

This Week in Europe: 4 Predictions for 2020

Everyone’s doing predictions, so I’m doing it too. FOMO and all. But what I’m going to do that no one does is put my money where my mouth is. Literally.

If I don’t get all of them right by the end of next year, I’ll donate €1,000 to a charity of choice. For future reference, these predictions are up on seedtable.com/predictions. We’ll check them up together on December 31st, 2020.

OK, here we go.

Europe will keep growing

2020 will be a great year for European tech. Money is pouring in from everywhere, and it won’t stop anytime soon.

Last year European funds raised €13 billion and a whopping 136 new funds were started, a record since Y & S been tracking it and, according to them, since the beginning of European venture times.

2020 was the first year that venture capital outperformed family. I already covered it before, so here’s a snippet from my Europe has Major Bragging Rights edition:

Suddenly, the data (and the general consensus) says that European tech is not a risky investment, but a “sure thing.” Local Private Equity, family offices and pension funds have woken up to the fact that European tech returns are actually quite good.

On top of all that, US regulation put extra stress to foreign money, who needs to find a new home. We’ll make it cozy here in Europe.

The “European tech” narrative is as strong as ever, and the world is catching up.

Quantifiable prediction #1: In 2020, European companies will raise at least $40 billion, and European funds will raise more than €15 billion.

VC-subsidized industries will consolidate

In 2019 I predicted that the Scooter Craze will go down, and we’d see some consolidation in the market. I was right back then. I believe that 2020 is the year that all the VC-subsidized fun (free delivery, cheap rides, free money) we consumers have been having will stop.

After the WeWork and Uber debacle, it’s time to go profitable. 'Profitable' is why people love Bolt, and the reason Glovo raised €150 million.

The industries most affected by this will be the ones who rely heavily on incentives (perks, discounts and freebies) or artificially low prices to grow – think food delivery, mobility and fintech.

An unintended consequence of this is that it’ll be harder for new startups to fight the newly-minted incumbents (Glovo, Uber, etc.) because they won’t have the cash to put together the incentives that helped them grow in the first place - free stuff.

Quantifiable prediction #2: there will be at least five $50m+ acquisitions in the fintech, food delivery and mobility space.

Paris will be the winner

In spite of what the Yellow Vests told the world with their weekly protests, 2019 was arguably France’s year. The French startup ecosystem – led by Paris – grew at an unprecedented rate.

In 2019, French startups raised €4.7 billion, up from €3.3 billion in 2019. That’s a 42% increase in a single year. By comparison, Germany grew by less than 20%.

On top of that, Macron launched a €5 billion late-stage pledge to tackle late-stage capital, France’s Aquiles heel.

Finally, the French visa came into effect, making hiring foreign talent easier and faster than hiring French workers.

Having lived in Paris for more than a year, I’m sort of familiar with the Paris startup scene. And I’m long Paris.

Quantifiable prediction #3: Paris will raise at least €4 billion in capital in 2020, with 2 new unicorns.

Bonus: Something is going on in Munich. I don’t know what. But something.

Regulators will try to tame the public (and fail)

In The Revolt of the Public and the Crisis of Authority, Martin Gurri states:

“We are caught between an old world which is decreasingly able to sustain us intelectually and spiritually, maybe even materially, and a new world that has not yet been born… Each side has a standard-bearer: authority for the old industrial scheme that domainted globally for a century and a half, the public for the uncertain dispensation striving to become manifest.”

This battle between the old institutions and the new network is faught on an infinite array of battlefields – from journalism to democracy itself.

In Europe, one battlefield in which it’s been played for the past couple of years is regulation. I wrote about the dangers of , how the UK , and how spectacularly.

At this point, you’d figure that regulators understand that they single-handedly can’t shape the world to their pleasure. I think that’s a no.

I predict that in 2020 we’ll see a wave of new regulation attemped to be passed with the goal of taming the public and the internet, and whatever passes, will fail spectacularly. Maybe 12 months isn’t enough time for regulation to, but we will see the beginnings of that failure.

Quantifiable prediction #4: we’ll see a regulatory body try to pass at least one law trying to significantly alter the Internet as we know it.

📰 COMMUNITY NEWS

Antler raises $50m to drive international ambitions

Global startup generator and early stage venture capital firm, Antler, has raised an additional $50m into its funds in Amsterdam, London, New York, Stockholm, Sydney, Nairobi, Oslo and Singapore.

Shared e-scooters will arrive in Amsterdam this summer with mandatory helmets

A spokesperson for the City of Amsterdam has confirmed to Tech.eu that two “permits for shared e-scooters are currently being issued,” and the first vehicles will hit the road around June.

📕 GOOD READS

A deep dive report from the Sifted explains why dark kitchens, white label software solutions and on-demand grocery delivery are the areas to watch. Email opt-in required.

W ill online privacy make a comeback in 2020?

Fun read from Techcrunch on how online privacy will make a comeback this year. Worth a read.

Things I learned as VP Growth at a hypergrowth Fintech

10 lessons from Franz Enzenhofer, former VP of Growth at London-based Curve.

Is it worth it to move to London as a SWE?

Interesting discussion on Hacker News on whether is it worth it to move to London and work as a software engineer.

💰 MONEY STUFF

London-based Receipt Bank snaps up €65.4 million to expand automated bookkeeping platform globally
Sweden’s digital health tech scale-up KRY raises €140 million in financing
Midnite raises $2.5M for its esports betting platform
Union Square Ventures leads legal tech startup Juro’s $5M Series A
Spanish traveltech Beonprice books €2.5 million for AI-driven hospitality revenue software
German insurtech sum.cumo acquired by Sapiens for over €28 million
French startup Naïo Technologies raises €14 million to expand eco farming robots
Paris-based Hivency raises €4 million to expand its influencer marketing platform
London-based Simba raises €21.5 million to become the world’s number one sleep brand

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